The number of smart meters installed worldwide has more than doubled in the past year, driven largely by policy and regulation, and will reach over 100 million by the end of 2011. North America and Europe have led the way with smart metering so far, but over the next few years the emphasis will start to shift towards other parts of the world, particularly the Asia-Pacific region. By 2015, we expect there to be over 370 million smart meters in operation globally.
In the USA, aided by federal stimulus grants, smart meter penetration will reach over 25% by the end of 2011. Multi-million smart meter deployments are increasing in number, with some of the largest including PG&E (9 million meters by 2011), Centerpoint (1.7 million meters installed),
Southern California Edison (5 million by 2012), and Oncor (over 1 million installed and 3 million in total projected by 2012). By 2015, we expect the penetration of smart meters in the USA to top 70%.
In
Canada, too, smart metering programmes are underway in all the largest Canadian provinces, driven mainly by provincial mandates. While Ontario has been at the forefront of these developments, having set a mandate of equipping homes and businesses with smart meters by 2011, smart meter installation is now gaining pace in Alberta, British Columbia, and Quebec.
BC Hydro, for example, plans to install 1.8 million meters by the end of 2012.
The European Union (EU) nations are being spurred by Third Energy Directive, which calls for an 80% penetration of smart meters by 2020. Early adopters such as Italy and Sweden have already completed large-scale deployments, and countries such as Denmark are following suit.
2011 has seen
Spain become the fastest developing smart metering market in Europe. After some initial delays, the country’s distribution system operators (DSOs) are now set to complete their meter replacements by the 2018 regulatory deadline, or in some cases three to four years in advance.
Endesa, which is the leading DSO with over 40% market share, is on track to complete installing its smart meters by 2015, three years ahead of the regulatory schedule, while all E.ON’s customers will have smart meters by 2014. Iberdrola plans to accelerate roll-out from 2012, and to replace 10.6 million meters by 2018.
During 2012, expect to see smart meter deployment hot up in
France as ERDF moves beyond pilots and prepares for mass installation. Seven million ‘Linky’ smart meters are due to be installed by 2014, with a further 28 million by 2018. The project is expected to cost up to EUR6.4 billion, including equipment and installation costs.
Over the next five years, the Asia−Pacific region will become a major contributor to global smart meter growth. Driven by state policy, by 2015
China will roll out smart meters throughout the commercial and industrial (C&I) sector as well as in over 50 million homes and small businesses.
Elsewhere,
Brazil is leading the way in Latin America, with plans to replace 63 million meters by 2021.
Over the coming years, global annual capital expenditure (capex) by utilities on smart meters and installation will continue to rise, reaching USD8.3 billion in 2015. After 2015, global annual capex on smart meters will decline, reflecting both the increasing installed base of smart meters worldwide and declining unit costs. We expect the average cost per smart meter to start to fall as low-cost meter vendors from China, India and Brazil start to have an impact, in their home markets and beyond.
